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Newark and Sherwood General Election results predicted in major new seat-by-seat poll

A major new poll has forecast the General Election result - and shows a big drop of support for the Conservatives in our area, with one of our two seats set to be picked up by Labour.

A YouGov poll reported by The Times has set out the likely seat-by-seat results in the next General Election - which is likely to be held at some point in 2024 - and offered a glimpse at the possible results in the Newark area.

It has forecast that the new Sherwood Forest seat, currently held as ‘Sherwood’ by Sir Mark Spencer before boundary changes - would be a Labour gain, with a huge drop in the Tory vote.

Sir Mark Spencer MP
Sir Mark Spencer MP

In Newark, Robert Jenrick is predicted to cling on to his seat by a narrow margin - with a vote share 26.7% lower than in in 2019. The poll puts him just 2.5% ahead of Labour in second.

Nationally, the poll puts Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives on course for a big defeat with just 155 seats left (down from 365 in 2019) and only 24% of the vote. This poll uses complicated statistical analysis to show what’s happening in each seat - rather than a broad brush national breakdown - which allows voters to get a glimpse of what the election could mean for this area.

The poll predicts:

Newark MP Robert Jenrick
Newark MP Robert Jenrick

Newark - Con 36.6%, Lab 34.1%, Reform 14.8%, Lib Dem 8.4%, Green 6.1% (The seat is held by Conservative Robert Jenrick, seen by some as a likely leadership contender if the election is lost and Rishi Sunak departs. In 2019 the result was Con 63.3%, Lab 23.4%, Lib Dem 9.69%, Green 3.56%)

Sherwood - Lab 37.4%, Con 31.8%, Reform 16.8%, Green 7.8%, Lib Dem 5.8% (Conservative Sir Mark Spencer holds the Sherwood seat. In 2019 the result was Con 60.8%, Lab 30.1%, Lib Dem 5.47%, Green 2.3%, others 1.33%)

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