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YouGov publish first projections for 2024 General Election, predicting a toss up between Labour and Conservatives in Newark, and big swings in Sherwood Forest and Rushcliffe

Pollsters at YouGov have published their first projections for the 2024 General Election — with the results throwing up a few surprises.

Nationally the poll suggests that Keir Starmer’s Labour Party could win a historic majority of 194 seats, surpassing the majority of 179 seats that Tony Blair achieved in 1997.

To form a government in Westminster, a political party or coalition need to secure a total of 326 seats. If accurate, Labour is predicted to take 422 seats overall, and the Conservatives will see their number reduced to just 140.

Ballot box
Ballot box

Across the Advertiser area, the poll predicts some big swings.

Newark is predicted to be the most marginal seat in the country, with the Conservative Robert Jenrick narrowly holding onto his seat.

It is expected to be a ‘toss up’ between Labour and the Conservatives, however, with both parties each due to take 38.8% of the vote.

In the Sherwood Forest constituency the poll makes the prediction that Labour will overturn the 16,000 vote majority that Conservative Mark Spencer secured at the 2019 General Election.

Labour is predicted to take 41.1% of the vote in this seat, while the Conservatives could get 34.8%.

Meanwhile, Conservative Ruth Edwards is also expected to lose her seat of Rushcliffe, in another big political shift.

With 49.6% of the vote, Labour is expected to comfortably gain the seat, followed by the Conservatives in second with 31.8%.

YouGov's first MRP projection of the 2024 general election. Credit: YouGov.
YouGov's first MRP projection of the 2024 general election. Credit: YouGov.

YouGov’s estimated seat projections are based on modelled responses from more than 58,000 adults in England, Scotland and Wales.

The UK General Election is scheduled to take place on July 4. The candidates so-far confirmed for the Newark constituency are (listed alphabetically):

• Michael Ackroyd - Green Party

• Saj Ahmad - Labour

• Adrian Amer - Independent

• Robert Hall-Palmer - Reform UK

• Robert Jenrick - Conservative

• Collan Siddique - Workers Party of Britain

• David Watts - Liberal Democrats

The candidates so far confirmed for the Sherwood Forest constituency are (listed alphabetically):

• David Dobbie - Liberal Democrats

• Sheila Greatrex-White - Green Party

• Helen Rose O'Hare - Reform UK

• Mark Spencer - Conservative

• Lee Waters - Independent

• Michelle Welsh - Labour

The candidates so far confirmed for the Rushcliffe constituency are (listed alphabetically):

• Ruth Edwards - Conservative

• James Grice - Reform UK

• Lynn Irving - Independent

• Richard Mallender - Green Party

• James William Naish - Labour

What do you think? Let us know in the comments below…

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