Reform UK on track to win Newark and Sherwood Forest, according to YouGov poll

A major new poll has predicted that Reform UK is on course to take both Newark-area parliamentary seats at the next election.

An extensive YouGov poll predicts that, were a General Election held now, Nigel Farage’s party would win both the Newark and Sherwood Forest seats.

YouGov’s data, based on a 13,000 sample from the past three weeks, uses statistical modelling to apply the likely outcome on a seat-by-seat basis.

Nearby Rushcliffe would stay in the hands of Labour — but all bar one Lincolnshire seat would be captured by Reform UK.

The result would mean defeat for Robert Jenrick — widely tipped to stand again as leader if Kemi Badenoch is ousted as Conservative Party leader — and for Sherwood Forest’s Michelle Welsh from Labour.

Nationally, the poll predicts a hung parliament, with Reform falling just short of an outright majority on 311 seats.

Labour would hold 144 seats, Liberal Democrats 78, Conservatives just 45. SNP would have 37 seats and Greens seven. Plaid Cymru would get six and three would be snapped up by a new left wing grouping.