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Final YouGov seat-by-seat poll predicts the likely General Election result in Newark and Sherwood Forest

A last seat-by-seat poll has offered a prediction for the General Election results in Newark and Sherwood — with two of the nation’s tightest races set to occur here.

The YouGov eve-of-election poll offers a glimpse at the verdict voters are expected to deliver in the Newark area when they cast their ballots tomorrow.

It suggests that both the Newark and Sherwood Forest seats are a ‘tossup’ — with Labour narrowly in the lead.

Newark election candidate questions thumbnail
Newark election candidate questions thumbnail
The candidates in Sherwood Forest
The candidates in Sherwood Forest

In Newark, Robert Jenrick is predicted to lose by a narrow margin to Labour contender Saj Ahmad.

YouGov has also forecast that the new Sherwood Forest seat, currently held as ‘Sherwood’ by Sir Mark Spencer before boundary changes - would be a Labour gain. However, it’s uncertain just how popular Reform UK will be in this constituency

Nationally, YouGov is predicting a landslide victory for Labour.

The poll predicts:


Lab 40.1%, Con 38.9%, Reform 12.3%, Lib Dem 4.3%, Green 4.1%, Other 0.3%

The seat is held by Conservative Robert Jenrick, who has been seen by some as a leadership contender if the election is lost and Rishi Sunak departs. In 2019 the result was Con 63.3%, Lab 23.4%, Lib Dem 9.69%, Green 3.56%

Sherwood Forest

Lab 32%, Con 29.3%, Reform 25.4%, Green 6.7%, Lib Dem 6.2%, Other 0.5%

Conservative Sir Mark Spencer holds the Sherwood seat. In 2019 the result was Con 60.8%, Lab 30.1%, Lib Dem 5.47%, Green 2.3%, others 1.33%.

YouGov’s final call MRP of the 2024 election points to a Labour landslide. The model’s ‘midpoint seat projections’ show Labour on 431, Conservatives on 102, Liberal Democrats on 72, the SNP on 18, Greens on 2, Reform UK on 3, and Plaid Cymru on 3.

The seat ranges for the parties are Labour 391-466, Conservatives 78-129, Liberal Democrats 57-87, the SNP 8-34, Greens 1-4, Reform UK 0-14 and Plaid Cymru 1-4. YouGov has categorised 89 seats as ‘tossups’, meaning there are five points or fewer between first and second place, so small changes in voter behaviour could see notable changes in results.

The results are based on a modelled survey of 47,751 adults, between June 19 and July 2.

What do you think? Are the polls right? Let us know your views in the comments below…

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